Market update on offshore wind in Poland, Finland & the Baltics

Agenda

• Opening words
  Jørgen Brandt Theodorsen, Norwegian Energy Partners
• Norway and Poland – important partners in the green transition
  Øystein Bø, Norway’s Ambassador to Poland
• The development of offshore wind in Poland, Finland and the Baltic countries
  Ewa Kwast, Norwegian Energy Partners
• Baltic Power and Orlen Neptun’s offshore wind projects
  Piotr Ostrowski, Deputy Project Director, Baltic Power
• Discussion
  Chair: Jørgen Brandt Theodorsen, Norwegian Energy Partners

The markets

For the countries in the Baltic region development of offshore wind is of high importance not only for meeting the European climate goals; it is also an important step towards strengthening energy independence, especially in the present geopolitical situation. The offshore wind potential in the region is estimated at 94 GW. The Marienborg Declaration signed in August 2022 sets a commitment of 8 countries surrounding the Baltic Sea to develop 19,6 GW energy from offshore wind by 2030.

Poland
 

In Poland, reaching the set target of 10,9 GW in OW is planned in two phases: Phase I, for which CfD for 5,9 GW were awarded in 2021 to 5 project owners: Equinor/Polenergia, Ørsted/PGE, Baltic Power (ORLEN/Northland Power), RWE and Ocean Winds; and Phase II, with auctions for totally 5 GW planned for 2025 and 2027. An amendment to the Act on RES proposed in 2023 aims at changing this scheme to four auctions offering a total support for 12 GW (for the 2025 and 2027 auctions 4 GW each, and for additional two auctions in 2029 and - 2 GW each. In 2023, 10 permits for new seabed areas for OW farms were granted to two Polish energy groups, PGE (additional 3,9 GW of capacity) and ORLEN (5.2 GW).

Finland
 

In 2023 in Finland, the state-owned agency Metsähallitus informed on lauching 5 competitive tenders for over 6 GW installed OW capacity in Finland’s territorial waters during 2023-24. The first two auctions for approx. 3GW were announced in November last year. Metsähallitus is also conducting early-stage development works on a 1,3 GW farm near Korsnäs to be operational in 2030, where Vattenfall has been selected as a j.v. partner. Finland’s OW development portfolio exceeds 30 GW. So far, all developments have been bottom-fixed, however there are floating wind opportunities in the Gulf of Bothnia.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia
 

We are also observing an increased pace of development in OW in the Baltic countries. Lithuania launched its first tender for 700 MW in spring last year, in which the local Ignitis Renewables partnered with Ocean Winds were the winners. The farm is expected to be fully commissioned by 2030, and another tender for a windfarm seabed site of the same capacity will be launched in spring this year. Estonia has a large offshore wind project pipeline (11GW) in four Baltic Sea areas that will be awarded to developers through auctions. The first two sites, Liivi 2 and Liivi 1, were put up for auction in Dec. 2023 and in Jan. 2024. The winner of both auctions is Ignitis Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP). Latvia is speeding up the work with the necessary legal framework to catch up in OW development with its neighbours. Latvia together with Estonia are establishing a joint ELWIND wind farm of 1 GW, planned to be commissioned in 2030.