Development of the offshore wind market in Poland, Finland & the Baltic states

The Polish offshore wind programme worth approx. 10 billion EUR, is the largest investment in postwar Poland. Reaching the firstly set target of 10,9 GW in OW was planned in two phases: Phase I, for which CfDs for 5,9 GW were awarded in 2021 to 5 project owners: Equinor/Polenergia, PGE/Ørsted, Baltic Power (ORLEN/Northland Power), RWE and Ocean Winds; and Phase II, with auctions for totally 5 GW planned for 2025 and 2027. An amendment to the Act on RES proposed in 2023 changed this scheme to 4 auctions offering a total support for 12 GW (for the 2025 and 2027 auctions 4 GW each, and for additional two auctions in 2029 and 2031 - 2 GW each. In 2023, 10 permits for new seabed areas for OW farms were granted to two Polish energy groups, PGE (additional 3,9 GW of capacity) and ORLEN (5.2 GW). As for Phase 1, two project owners, Baltic Power and the PGE/Ørsted j.v., have already taken their FIDs, and such a decision is soon expected to be taken by the Equinor/Polenergia j.v. In February 2025, first monopiles were installed for the first offshore wind farm in Poland, 1140 MW Baltic Power.

We are also observing an increased pace of development in OW in the Baltic countries. Lithuania launched its first tender for 700 MW in spring 2023, in which the local energy group Ignitis partnered with Ocean Winds were the winners. The farm is expected to be fully commissioned by 2030, and another tender of the same capacity in the territorial waters has been launched for the second time early this year. Estonia has a large offshore wind project pipeline (11 GW) in four Baltic Sea areas that are in the process of being awarded to developers through auctions. The first two sites, Liivi 1 and Liivi 2, were put up for auction in Dec. 2023 and in Jan. 2024. The winner of the Liivi 1 auction is the Lithuanian Igntitis, and for the Liivi 2 auction a consortium of Ignitis and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP). In June 2024 Deep Wind Offshore was awarded the Saare 2.1 and Saare 2.2 OW areas, and in Jan. 2025, Oxan Energy won the first Estonian floating OW tender, and will together with its partner SNOW develop the 900 MW Saare 1 project. Latvia is speeding up the work with the necessary legal framework to catch up in OW development with its neighbours. Latvia together with Estonia are developing the joint ELWIND wind farm of 2 x 1 GW near the Gulf of Riga, planned to be commissioned in 2030.

Finland’s OW development portfolio exceeds 30 GW. On Jan 1 this year, the Act on OW Power in Finland’s SEZ entered into force enabling selection of suitable OW power areas and implementation by the Energy Authority a competitive tendering process. In 2023, the state-owned agency Metsähallitus launched 5 competitive tenders for over 6 GW installed OW capacity in Finland’s territorial waters during 2023-24. The first two auctions for approx. 3GW were announced in the end of 2023. Metsähallitus is also conducting early-stage development works on a 1,3 GW farm near Korsnäs to be operational in 2030, where Vattenfall has been selected as a j.v. partner. So far, all developments have been bottom-fixed, however there are floating wind opportunities in the Gulf of Bothnia. Fingrid has started to work on preparing 7 connection points for 9 GW of OW power capacity that will be ready for connections in the 2030s.